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"Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
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Apotheosis
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:58 am Posts: 38
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Having searched the wiki and forum, i have found many interesting people saying many interesting things, however, there appears to be no applied theorycrafting that mathematically describes the relationship between scanning power and number of planets in a players database.
My question for the community is thus, what is the formula for scanning power to scan a new planet with regard to total number of planets already found(planetary cloaking aside)
ie: x scanning power = y maximum in database.
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Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:33 pm |
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Ruairi
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 3:37 am Posts: 614
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I don't think anyone but Dan knows.
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Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:39 pm |
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zophah
Joined: Sat May 22, 2010 6:22 pm Posts: 1760 Location: On the bridge of the Vikiera
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I can't really remember, but last 2 times I did a scan blitz I think I saw it as follows:
"planets" means total planets scanned "scan" means scanning power
If planets > scan/10, then chance = 0% If planets < scan/20, then chance = 100%
_________________ I have suggested 7 Races, 5 Organizations, 3 locations, 3 materials, and 20 planets. View my profile interests for a full list.
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Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:45 pm |
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BinaryMan
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 8:40 pm Posts: 1671
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I actually have enough energy with a cube that I could reach "grayed out" scan button by scanning repeatedly at like 5200 scan. I have 473 planets after that. It's actually a diminishing % formula, in that once you get under 100% it drops rapidly, then starts to drop more slowly until you get to under 5%, somewhere under 5% before, it would not allow you to scan anymore. The higher the scan, the more planets you can drag out of this low % portion. At smaller scan values like up to 500 or 1000, it may look more like that formula, scan/10 = max planets. That might be a good rough approximation. I actually prefer the % chance we used to have, and not the "good/fair" buckets which are just for each 20-25% increment. What needed to actually happen is when you fail from cloak, it said "You scans could not lock on to the planet's flux" or whatever. Since that never got fixed, ppl were still confused why it was failing; obscuring the % is basically because ppl didn't realize that 99% (really 100%) means 100% chance of getting phase 1 right, and phase 2 MIGHT be a cloak check that fails. From my other post: I observed right after the planet count increases, usually 50-100k adjustment, go do a scan run. I have found most of the scanned planets were 0 other ppl scanned, suggesting it takes from the pool of new planets at least a % of your scans. The failure message was still wrong last time I did it, in that it doesn't say the cloaking is blocking you, but there's no other explanation. Higher scan should result in less failures from this cause; it was 10-15% at 5700 scan @ 99%. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q40VVv7vIhM for a scan run video; "Scan failed to find a new planet." was the message for cloak failure (I guess). I'm not sure if it's really supposed to calculate "almost 99%" and drops off or something before it shows that it drops. The other solution is a % of scans are (if not already) find/create a random new world, something like 25%, but I know there is a planet/active player balancing going on as well. The planet distribution is unlikely to change for the newly generated planets in the pool. -- I will try to actually use this video to get an approximate algorithm. Assuming it hasn't changed (and I don't think it has other than to cover up the exact %), and you can see how many planets I get at that scan exactly before it drops < 99% , and how it tends to drop off in % chance on the old system in that video link. See also : viewtopic.php?f=4&t=34495719 scan: planet/chance 345 = 100% 368 = 50% 385 = 33% 399-400 = 25% 411-412 = 20% 428 = 15%
_________________Ex cinere surget iterum ego galaxiae dominatur. 
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Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:19 am |
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Apotheosis
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:58 am Posts: 38
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So were suposing there to be a scaling element involved as that explains the % sucess rate and varying values of each %, from my own experience i have done scans at 99%, finding a planet made it 95%, the next planet made it 80% and so on.
So then, does this "scaling value element" relate to player rank, scanning power directly, or number of planets in the whole galaxy, or number of planets in the players database list.
ie; scanning power - (or / ) "scaling value" = total number of planets that can be held in list before being unable to scan further.
some numbers ive been getting from asking around are
rank 359 : scan power 6097 : 450 maximum planets rank 466 : scan power 5098 : 469 maximum planets
so as we can see there is definately a difference according to rank, in these 2 real examples the lower ranked player has higher scan but roughly equal total planets. if we presume the scaling value to be according to rank then its reasonable to state that scan values are worth more to lower levels. this tracks from what we see with new players who are able to scan 20-30 planets with basic non researched scanner equipment.
scan power affected by x = maximum planets ,using the above data this formula comes within a 5% error
(((scan - rank) / current total)* rank) /10 = current total [-+5%] (((6097-359) / 450) *359) /10 = 457.8 (((5098-466) / 469) *466) /10 = 460
while this is pretty, it doesnt tell us anything, the 5% error marjin is unaceptable, the division of 10 at the end comes from nowhere, and the formula requires the maximum value already being a known figure(which was what were trying to determine in the first place lol )
possible other factors, total number of planets in galaxy, rank*4, current planets found
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Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:11 am |
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FerrusManus
Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 12:32 am Posts: 4524
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I don't think rank factors into it, only scanning and amount of planets scanned.
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Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:00 am |
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BinaryMan
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 8:40 pm Posts: 1671
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5719 scan, complete run: % and planetcount Code: 99 345 43 374 23 403 98 346 42 375 23 404 94 347 41 376 22 405 91 348 40 377 22 406 88 349 39 378 22 407 85 350 38 379 21 408 82 351 37 380 21 409 80 352 37 381 21 410 77 353 36 382 20 411 75 354 35 383 20 412 73 355 34 384 20 413 70 356 33 385 19 414 68 357 33 386 19 415 66 358 32 387 19 416 64 359 31 388 18 417 62 360 31 389 18 418 61 361 30 390 18 419 59 362 29 391 17 420 57 363 29 392 17 421 56 364 28 393 17 422 54 365 28 394 17 423 53 366 27 395 16 424 51 367 27 396 16 425 50 368 26 397 16 426 49 369 26 398 16 427 48 370 25 399 15 428 46 371 25 400 15 429 45 372 24 401 44 373 24 402
_________________Ex cinere surget iterum ego galaxiae dominatur. 
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Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:51 am |
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BrianGameAcct
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 9:45 pm Posts: 510
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BinaryMan
Thank you so much. My last scan was December and I complained. The very next day or two the planet count increased by 100,000+ My legion mate did and scan and got a successful run.
DAN you really should have the program constantly add planets rather than 50-100K at a time. I would imagine easier said than done. I'll have to watch for the next planet increase to do my next scan; need to purchase one more expensive scanner.
_________________
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Thu Mar 24, 2011 4:02 am |
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BinaryMan
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 8:40 pm Posts: 1671
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No, I don't think that matters; when the "new never scanned" planet pool gets low, either automatically or Dan manually adds a batch of planets generated randomly to it. Everyone seems to pull a certain % of these planets so that they are not all overlapping all the time with already scanned planets. So it doesn't necessarily matter if you scan right after these are added, I just always felt that it couldn't hurt 
_________________Ex cinere surget iterum ego galaxiae dominatur. 
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Thu Mar 24, 2011 5:44 am |
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Apotheosis
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:58 am Posts: 38
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Has anyone had any new thoughts on this subject?
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Tue Mar 29, 2011 9:10 pm |
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