I've felt for a long time that being right below a multiple of 20K AP/hr is the ideal place to be, due to the necessary increase in MSP drops and therefore the subsequent decrease in all other artifacts. Unfortunately I don't have the math/statistics prowess to back this up, can someone with more chops in those departments run the numbers for to confirm or disprove this?

E.g. better to be at 19.5K than 21K per hour, or 39.5K than 41K per hour

I'm curious as to (if the above is correct) what the break-even point is, i.e. does 30K ap/hr yield the same Prisoner drop rate as 10K, or is it equivalent to 15K, or what?

How often are you collecting?
I can do one for every hour, and another for every hour for 8 hours, 1 8 hour collection and 2 4 hour collections. (this its the part i need what numbers you want run)

In my mind the more AP the better no matter what. If you sit and try to hold a some rate you will loss out on a bunch of arti points in the long run even if you do a massive jump all at once I do not feel it is worth it. I think in the long run you would get more RP's with more AP then without. maybe not hour by hour but if you collect every two or three hours instead of every hour I think it will work out better that way. That is just my thoughts on this. You can agree or disagree and do what ever you want. It is your ship. lol

I'm inclined to agree with the OP. Pulling at 19999 will grant more 19999-4000 pulls than 20001, which would increase the number of MSP...

After 20k, however, the effect will dwindle and it'll go back to more AP=better.

I was thinking of the simple ideal case, collecting every hour. Your second scenario is more realistic, though for me it's more like collecting hourly for 12 hours, and then one 6 hour collection, and two 3 hour collections.

Hence my question, wanting to see if I'm making decent assumptions or if I'm way off base

Fairly happy to be proven wrong on this one, even if it means I've made some oddly unwise choices in the past.

You also would also have to factor in the leftovers you had the hour before which can range from 0-3999 depending on the last artifact pulled the previous hour, so your value per aph would change when you're in this region. Off the top of my head I could see a minor benefit to keeping it at a certain break point, but it seems almost negligible when you have to factor in planet buffs, blockades, raids, etc which can movie this point around and the effort to hit this point would likely be more than it was worth in time spent on calculations as well as costs from rearranging structures every time you take a new planet.

Good point on the leftovers, though do they ever go above 2K when you "collect all"? On the rest, calculating is a one time cost, whether acting on the info is worthwhile depends on the results of the calculations.

No, u can make it have less than 250 points by manually.collecting after the all button.

using collect all or individual pull and stopping at 4k?

ive never had it collect all and stop at anything above ~1200, i dont pay close attention, bit its more often then not ~600.
and i think it would be unwise to try to hold production at any level trying to maximize your prisoner gains. unless your using an autoclicker for overnight collection, your always going to go over that 20K threshhold.
Im at 48K now, and get ~5-10 MSPs a day, and im also getting ~5-15 prisoners. along with ~10 brackets and xcells.

I think if your close to the 20k per hour mark you might be right, but i agree with mojo on this one once your over 20k per hour more is better, don't wait.

--myst

luck of the draw unfortunately i collect every 4 hours, there have been times when ill get 12 prisoners in that window others when i wont get any, sucks but have to go with more = better

20k intervals -after- exactly 20k/hr do not correlate with a higher chance for MSP anymore than 19k or 21k. While you can get more MSPs if you were to obtain multiple, you're not going to pull multiple (less than 1% chance to pull 2 MSPs in a row). The same goes for anything else, higher AP/hr does not alter the chance for pulling any artifact.

The "leftovers" that were mentioned is why anything above 20k = same percentage for MSPs and thus no particular AP/hr is going to change that rate.

20k = 1 shot for MSP ... after 1 AP pull it will be below 20k and thus no chance for MSP. 40k = 20k AP worth of shots (not 2 shots, 20k AP worth of shots until AP left is below 20k negating MSP chance). You -can- get 2 MSPs, but there is less than a 1% chance for that to happen.

Let's assume 1k average per art (I don't know the actual average, but moot point) ... 40k pull = above 20k, x% chance for MSP. 39k = above 20k, x% chance for MSP. 38k = above 20k, x% chance for MSP. Yada yada yada until 19999 AP pull = below 20k, 0% chance for MSP. It's not immediately dropping below 20k, so each new pull will be the normal chance for an MSP until the AP remaining negates the chance to pull an MSP. The chance is either 100% of its normal value or 0%, it does not vary.

Is there a -chance- that you could pull -all- MSPs? Sure. However, conti beacons are 5k ap and you -could- pull all beacons, so should you stall your AP/hr at every 4999 interval? You could if you're afraid of getting all beacons, but the chances of that are incredibly slim.

Even if MSPs had a 10% drop rate (it's most definitely lower, but making a point here), the chances of getting 2 MSPs at 40k would be 1% ... chance of getting 3 MSPs at 60k? 0.1% ... 80k getting 4? 0.01% ...


So, 20k AP/hr intervals do not correlate with a "necessary increase in MSP drops". There is the potential for more of them, but by the same logic there is also a "necessary increase in Rescued Prionser drops".


Hope that helps, tried to break it apart where I could.

Collect all, I'm lazy


I do sort of get your point, but I can't get past the idea that below 20K there is 0% chance of MSPs, while there is a chance above 20K, thus requiring more AP for the same amount of all other artifacts. I don't know if that is moot once you are at a whole number multiple greater than 1 though (40K, 60K, etc.), since as you point out the odds of two MSPs from a 40K pull are much smaller than the odds of one MSP from a 20K pull (unless I misunderstood that, which is entirely possible).

True, but that would result in an average 2k "wasted" aph (not truly wasted, but they would have no chance at prisoners and thus a far lower value) and probably damage you far more than any loss from msps.

Making a very rough estimate, let's say the chance of an MSP is ~1/60. This causes a loss of 20k, vs. say 2k less per hour for 21 to 19k/hr. Over 60 hours this is a loss of 120k, which is far more. Same applies to other multiples of 20k. It feels worse to pull just an MSP, but you're still getting more AP in the long run.

have you ever noticed when you collect it leaves a few hundred?? you think that few hundred might just bump your imaginary figure of 19999 over 20k and give you a nice easy msp??

To OP,

I noticed when i was 22-24k i was getting bugger all RP's for the arti hauls, once i increased it to 26k it seemed to have worked itself out properly and was getting better RP rates from then on

I do sort of get your point, but I can't get past the idea that below 20K there is 0% chance of MSPs, while there is a chance above 20K, thus requiring more AP for the same amount of all other artifacts. I don't know if that is moot once you are at a whole number multiple greater than 1 though (40K, 60K, etc.), since as you point out the odds of two MSPs from a 40K pull are much smaller than the odds of one MSP from a 20K pull (unless I misunderstood that, which is entirely possible).[/quote]


MSPs require 20000 AP to pull, so if you do not have 20000 AP in store to pull, then by definition you cannot pull an MSP.
You did correctly understand my point about the odds of pulling two MSPs in a row from a 40k pull.

I'm not sure what you mean when you say "there is a chance above 20k, thus requiring more AP for the same amount of all other artifacts". That's not really a true statement. You're mixing up the percent chance of obtaining an artifact and the actual obtaining of that artifact, which distorts your perceived "acquisition rate". There are only two percentages/weights for MSPs, it's not variable:

Below 20k in store = 0% chance of pulling an MSP because MSPs require and use up 20000 AP. It's not a "maybe it will cost 20k, but maybe it will only cost 4k or maybe 18k" ... 20k is 20k is 20k.

Above 20k in store = x% chance of pulling an MSP until AP in store falls below 20k at which point it returns to 0%.


The AP pulls are a random number generator with certain percentages or weights on the different artifacts. These percentages/weights do NOT change each time you draw UNLESS the AP in store falls below the required amount for them. Thus, 20000 AP, 20001, 39999, 40000, 40001, etc etc etc ... are all going to have guaranteed the precise same percentage/weight for MSPs (and all other artifacts) until such a time as the AP in store falls below the required AP amount at which point that particular artifact becomes guaranteed 0%.

AP pulls are not like a deck of cards where pulling a card or adding new cards changes the chance of all other cards. AP pulls are a straight RNG, which means that so long as the requirement for a number/artifact is met (which is simply the amount of AP in store), then the percentage/weight for any given number/artifact is a set number (set, final, guaranteed, set in stone, not changing, etc) and absolutely nothing changes the percentage chance of pulling a number/artifact other than those requirements for that artifact to be allowed.

One thing to consider is that AP pulls top out at 500 total artifacts, which can start happening if the total pull is around 700-800k. The rest has to be taken as a separate draw, but it will vary how much is in that pool.