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Threadbare
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:16 pm Posts: 916
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I'm keeping a tally of all my artifact pulls that are over 20k (so each pull also includes the chance of a Mass Storage Pod). I have some initial results below. I'll keep this up and post occasionally until I get bored with writing these down.
Thus far it does seem like some artifacts are more common than others, but until I get more pulls I won't know for sure. Make of the data what you'd like!
Total Pulls: 427
Alarm Sentry 5 1.17% Alien Data Disk 9 2.11% Ancient Crystal Foci 8 1.87% Android Helmsman 8 1.87% Android Scientist 1 0.23% Calming Amplifier 6 1.41% Cloning Pods 13 3.04% Containment Cage 7 1.64% Containment Missile 8 1.87% Continuum Beacon 11 2.58% Crimson Obelisk 12 2.81% Dark Pyramid 8 1.87% Disarming Bomb 6 1.41% Drannik Saboteur 6 1.41% Durtanium Brackets 6 1.41% EMP Sphere 7 1.64% Engineered Virus 6 1.41% Flux Probe 6 1.41% Grav-Whip Trap 8 1.87% Grid Console 12 2.81% Halycon Trap 11 2.58% Ion Repulsor Charge 9 2.11% Krionos Virus Trap 10 2.34% Longevity Serum 6 1.41% Mass Storage Pod 6 1.41% Nanite Swarm Capsules 6 1.41% Neural Interface 9 2.11% Null Fuse 6 1.41% Omicron Mine Trap 9 2.11% Phase Cutter Chassis 4 0.94% Planetary Time Vortex 8 1.87% Plantary Vortex Deflector 6 1.41% Positron Clouder 4 0.94% Processing Core Chassis 9 2.11% Quantum Firewall Trap 4 0.94% Quantum Flare 4 0.94% Refining Lab Chassis 6 1.41% Relay Tower Chassis 5 1.17% Repair Nanodrones 7 1.64% Rescued Prisoners 7 1.64% Sentry Guards 6 1.41% Shield Amplifer 6 1.41% Shield Restorer 9 2.11% Shield Sentries 5 1.17% Ship-Bot 3 0.70% Space Elevator Chassis 7 1.64% Spy Probe - Defenses 8 1.87% Spy Probe - Resources 9 2.11% Spy Probe - Weapons 6 1.41% Spy Uplink Chassis 7 1.64% Star Chart Purger 7 1.64% Subspace Seeker 9 2.11% Tachyon Cylinder 12 2.81% Tessaract Container 7 1.64% Time Manipulator 6 1.41% Unstable Wormhole Emitter 11 2.58% Void Shell 5 1.17% Warp Gate Chassis 8 1.87% Xcharge Cells 7 1.64%
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Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:34 pm |
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Lone.Lycan
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:44 am Posts: 3751
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that's weird... you didn't get a single ion storm charge?
summary of your pulls, sample size = 427 Qty, # of unique item types per qty 00, 1 01, 1 02, 0 03, 1 04, 4 05, 4 06, 16 07, 9 08, 8 09, 8 10, 1 11, 3 12, 3 13, 1
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Officer Namba1 of The Unknown, Lv.666+ Dark Smuggler

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:34 pm |
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Threadbare
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:16 pm Posts: 916
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No, not a single one. That IS weird. I will repost when I get closer to 1000 pulls.
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Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:30 pm |
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Lone.Lycan
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:44 am Posts: 3751
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by the way... with 60 different marbles to choose from, it'll take tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands of pulls to confidently say that any one marble has a significantly different chance of selection than the rest....
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Officer Namba1 of The Unknown, Lv.666+ Dark Smuggler

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:41 pm |
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Threadbare
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:16 pm Posts: 916
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I figured I could pull until I had 30 of each so someone could put together a normal curve. Or if that took too long, at least go for a couple thousand pulls.
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Wed Aug 17, 2011 1:32 am |
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Lone.Lycan
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:44 am Posts: 3751
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aww.. just going up to 30 ? ok....
(assuming equal pulls on all 60 items) mean = trials * probSuccess = trials / 60 st.dev = √( trials * probSuccess * ( 1 - probSuccess ) ) = √( trials * 59 / 3600 )
when you get up to 1800 pulls, ideally you'd have an average quantity of 30 per item type, with a standard deviation of 5.43139 so 95% of the item types (57 item types) should have quantities ranging from 20 to 40
(i think that's right... if BinaryMan wants to, he can correct me on this)
it'll be interesting to see if ion storm catches up.... i know i usually pull 1 ion storm per ion repulser
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Officer Namba1 of The Unknown, Lv.666+ Dark Smuggler

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Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:24 am |
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blakespon
Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2010 10:30 pm Posts: 1441 Location: chilling inside of the epic Odyssey eating cookies
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when you do your artifact pulls youll have to make sure its alwats above 20000 points s you have ethe correct odds of getting everything
_________________ join delta surfers! we have cookies thanks xzien and thunderbolta for the banners! 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:55 am |
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boomsly
Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2010 9:41 am Posts: 211
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blakespon wrote: when you do your artifact pulls youll have to make sure its alwats above 20000 points s you have ethe correct odds of getting everything read the first line in his post
_________________ Reached Star Destroyer at Rank 291
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Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:36 am |
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BinaryMan
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 8:40 pm Posts: 1671
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Pooled results from a large # of players:
Spy Probe - Defenses 247 Grav-Whip Trap 246 Ancient Crystal Foci 242 Subspace Seeker 239 Time Manipulator 237 Alien Data Disc 233 Grid Console 231 Sentry Guards 231 Android Helmsman 230 Quantum Firewall Trap 225 Null Fuse 223 Shield Amplifier 222 Mass Storage Pod 221 Nanite Swarm Capsules 220 Shield Sentries 220 Dark Pyramid 218 Calming Amplifier 218 Neural Interface 217 Relay Tower Chassis 217 Unstable Wormhole Emitter 216 Processing Core Chassis 216 Disarming Bomb 214 Tachyon Cylinder 214 Planetary Time Vortex 214 Cloning Pods 213 Rescued Prisoners 211 Continuum Beacon 209 Quantum Flare 208 Flux Probe 208 Longevity Serum 208 Halcyon Trap 205 Android Scientist 205 Star Chart Purger 204 Omicron Mine Trap 204 Spy Uplink Chassis 203 Krionus Virus Trap 203 Spy Probe - Resources 203 Drannik Saboteur 200 EMP Sphere 200 Ion Storm Charge 200 Planet Vortex Deflector 199 Phase Cutter Chassis 199 Crimson Obelisk 197 Spy Probe - Weapons 197 Durtanium Brackets 197 Ion Repulsor Charge 196 Refining Lab Chassis 196 Shield Restorer 195 Engineered Virus 195 Void Shell 194 Alarm Sentry 193 Space Elevator Chassis 193 Repair Nanodrones 192 Tesseract Container 192 Positron Clouder 191 Containment Missile 191 XCharge Cells 188 Ship-Bot 187 Warp Gate Chassis 184 Containment Cage 181 Total Artifacts 12552 Total AP value: 20,118,500 Average AP value/drop : 1602 Number of unique drops : 60 MSP % of AP : 22.0%
Resulting hypothesis: all drops have statistically same chance of being picked, if they are within the set your AP can cover (ie, > 20k = all things are equal drop rate). Also, for every 4k/hr AP you get on average 1 of everything per day, for example prisoners.
_________________Ex cinere surget iterum ego galaxiae dominatur. 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:52 am |
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Lone.Lycan
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:44 am Posts: 3751
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N = 12552 pulls ideal Avg = 209.2 per item type ideal St.Dev = 14.34
ideally, 95% of the item types (57 item types) should have quantities within 181 to 237 from the data we see 4 item types are beyond 237, one of them is 239... i'm satisfied with the results... seems to match equal distribution to all 60 items close enough...
(also nice to see 200 ion storms there.... which makes up for no ion storms in the other data set)
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Officer Namba1 of The Unknown, Lv.666+ Dark Smuggler

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Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:58 am |
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Threadbare
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:16 pm Posts: 916
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And, this saves me from having to write down all these.  Thank you BinaryMan and Lone.Lycan.
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Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:35 pm |
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